I’m becoming convinced that the brief reign of the megachurch as we know it (2,000 or more people in worship) will begin to wane over the next 20 years. Not that megachurches will disappear, but two things will begin to happen. We will see fewer of them, and the largest ones will be “cyberchurches.”

Those who know me or my writings well realize that part of the above observation represents an about-face for me. Personally, I favor megachurches. I even specialize in working with them, because they have many more resources to offer the world than does the small church.

Those who hear this prediction might also question my sanity, due to the current popularity of megachurches. Every year more and more people attend fewer and fewer churches, most of which are megachurches. So why would I come to such a conclusion?

Something just doesn’t feel quite right about them at this point in our postmodern journey. Call it intuition. Call it a guess. Or call it the results of my nonscientific observations of modern and postmodern pastors. You can draw your conclusions from the following observations.

1. I get the feeling that more and more postmodern pastors have a much larger agenda than pastoring a geographically localized institution, even a growing one.

They seem more concerned with turning their city and world upside down than with pastoring a church. They are kingdom oriented rather than institution oriented. These pastors seem more concerned with starting a movement than pastoring churches or being part of a denomination. They seem committed to the journey of completing the Great Commission in their lifetime.

If this observation is anywhere on target, the fruit of their labor will differ vastly from that of megachurch pastors. However, I’m not saying the fruit of their labor will be better, just different. How will it be different, and what does this have to do with church leadership today?

Instead of building larger churches they will plant more churches, because they know that new churches tend to reach pagans more than megachurches do. Most of the postmodern pastors with whom I’ve been associated have a driving passion to start new churches. Many of these church planters have started another church within the first three years of their church’s existence. I get the feeling from these pastors that they would just as soon have 10 churches with a combined 7,000 participants in the same city as one church with the same number. I do not get this same attitude from pastors of the megachurch tradition. Remember, this is not a better approach, just different.

2. I even see this lackluster approach to megachurch life emerging among some postmodern megachurch pastors.

While having dinner with one of these pastors, I asked him what he would do when his congregation got too big for the current facilities. His answer adds fuel to my intuition: “When that happens, we’ll just close the church and send everyone out into the world. After all, our goal is not to build a church but to plant many churches.”

3. Postmodern pastors seem to have a passion for developing authentic, intimate, trust-filled, missional community with a common DNA.

They’re not content with developing a large, institutional church filled with multiple forms of DNA where people find it easy to hide. I have the feeling that when the church becomes so big that it has to work on propping up community, it will find ways to continue advancing toward fulfilling the Great Commission without the congregation’s becoming larger. Perhaps this would happen by systematically training and sending members out into the city or world to start new churches.

4. More and more churches are experimenting with multiple sites.

One of the key ingredients of multiple sites is an intense desire from these leaders to reach and transform the city. They seem to feel that along with larger churches, the only way to reach the city is multiple locations. Multiple locations mean smaller congregations.

This trend also gives rise for us to consider house and cell churches. Could it be that the growing practice of having multiple sites will pave the way for a rapid advance of the house and cell-church movement? One such church in Fort Worth now has over 200 locations consisting of over 3,000 participants, many of whom never darken the door of the “mother church.”

These young pastors -- and postmoderns in general -- may lead the way to a renewal of the 1950s’ emphasis on home and the sanctity of its space. This would easily lead to an increase in house and cell churches. If so, it will accelerate and intensify the present strain on institutional and denominational life, making the church as we know it too expensive to operate. This leads me to believe that I have not given enough thought to the house and cell-church movements, which have been quietly going about their ministry in this country the past few decades.

5. Among these pastors I sense a great disdain for having to spend hours managing an organization.

The business sector finds this an issue among its younger workers. The larger a church, the more time, energy, and money it takes to manage the organization. I think these young pastors will avoid this situation like the plague even if it means smaller, yet more, churches.

6. Succession looms as a real problem for many megachurches.

Even the casual observer of First Baptist in Dallas can’t avoid noticing the remarkable free-fall the church has experienced since the passing of Criswell -- from over 10,000 in worship to under 3,000 in less than a decade.

Most megachurches have long-tenured pastors. My denomination (UMC) has around 60 churches of over 2,000 in worship and still has no consistent plan for succession, other than our historical “one size fits all” appointments by a bishop. Over the next 15 years, the majority of United Methodist megachurches will experience the retirement of their long-term pastors. It should be interesting to watch.

7. Postmodern pastors probably will not invest 20 to 30 years in the same ministry.

Like their counterparts in industry, postmodern pastors grow bored easily and will have the proverbial itch to try something new. Shorter tenures will mean smaller churches, because most megachurches have developed around long-tenured pastors.

8. These postmodern pastors have a communal rather than institutional view of Communion.

Those who have followed the progression of my thought over the past decade know that I believe that the age into which we are moving will be more like the first century than the 20th century. In the first century, Christians gathered in small intimate groups throughout a city.

For example, Lydia was made pastor of the Church of Philippi, which gathered in multiple locations throughout the city. House churches were the norm in the first century. That being the case, then Holy Communion was celebrated by small groups of people who held all things in common, not in institutions where some of the people don’t even know one another.

In a passionate desire for closer ties, warmer fellowship, and intimate communion, I’m convinced churches will intentionally gather in small communities and that Holy Communion will become more personal and less institutional.

Please do not misunderstand what I am suggesting. These churches may be smaller, but they’ll multiply like rabbits. When one gets too large, a new one will be started, maybe within walking distance. The emphasis will not be on developing and sustaining institutional life (as happens in the vast majority of congregations today), but on assuring that the Christian virus spreads throughout the region.

9. Society is increasingly becoming annoyed by the megachurch.

Megachurches are finding it harder to obtain the necessary permits and land needed for their facilities. Hostility toward them is growing in all sectors because they cause too much traffic and noise, distort the landscape, and take large portions of prime property off the tax roles. This trend will continue to escalate.

Why Cyberchurches?

Cyberchurches will arise for a variety of reasons. When virtual reality is embedded in the World Wide Web, people will be able to worship together without leaving their living rooms. Sacred space will again, as in the 1950s, be wedded to the church and home -- only this time it won’t be institutional bliss. To deny this possibility is no different than those who denied the potential of a wire strung between two cans (forerunner of the telephone).

But a more compelling reason exists. Younger adults are learning that caring and intimate online community is not only possible, but also a thriving reality. Cyber communities are exploding all over the Web.

Of course, most older church people don’t think of these communities as “real” communities, much less intimate, caring communities like their congregations. I have news for all of us. My organization’s experience with online communities over the past two years (EBA has six) has shown that online communities can not only be caring communities but often emerge as more caring and intimate than many congregations.

A Final Observation

If my observations hold true, what does all of this mean for megachurches today? It certainly does not mean something is wrong with them or that they should be dismantled. The landscape is already dotted with too many small, institutional churches too weak to have any vitality.

However, it does mean that megachurches should be alert to some of the possible challenges facing them. They must …

1. Recognize that they remain more fragile than any other size church;
2. Ensure effective succession of long-tenured pastors;
3. Put more time, energy, and money into people rather than into buildings and managerial maintenance; and
4. Find ways to provide solid community to noninstitutional postmoderns who prefer community more than celebration.

At this juncture in the postmodern journey to whatever lies on the other side of modernity, we desperately need megachurches. As seminaries continue to falter and attract fewer people, we need teaching churches to pick up the slack. In times of epic transitions like today, megachurches can be beacons of hope and health to weaker congregations. As denominations continue to lose their will to start new churches, megachurches will have to step in and provide the leadership for church planting.

The irony is that the very time we need megachurches the most, so much in society seems to be starting to work against them. Go figure.

Bill Easum is president and senior managing partner of Easum, Bandy & Associates. EBA prepares congregations and faith-based organizations for mission in the 21st century by training innovative leaders with a passion to grow disciples of Christ, and provides resources, services, and networks to equip faithful and effective Christian ministries. For more information, call (361) 749-5364 or write to easum@easumbandy.com.

The article is reprinted with permission from Net Results, a monthly journal of “New Ideas in Church Vitality.” For more information or to subscribe, phone (806) 762-8094; fax 806/762-8873; email netresults@netresults.org.